CFP Scenario Tracker: Week 10
Which teams still have a path to the playoffs heading into Week 10?
Things are starting to heat up in the college football world and it couldn’t be more exciting. Several teams are looking from the outside into the Top 4, waiting for someone to slip up so that they can take their spot.
Here’s the Top 25, with each team’s path to the playoff if there is one.
No. 1 Georgia (9-0)
Easy lock, unless the Bulldogs fall apart to end the season. We’ve already seen a Georgia-based team finally win a championship following a long drought (see Atlanta Braves), so could this be the year for Georgia?
No. 2 Alabama (8-1)
The win against LSU was shaky, yes, but Alabama is still in the driver’s seat in the SEC West and ultimately the whole conference if it can pull off an upset over Georgia in the SEC Championship. That’s the clearest path to the playoff.
Things get complicated if Alabama slips up against Auburn, though.
Depending on how Auburn and Texas A&M finish out the season, a road loss to the Tigers could knock Alabama out of the SEC title game if A&M wins out. That all but does it for the Crimson Tide, if they miss the SEC Championship.
But, can a two-loss Alabama team still make the playoff?
Does the committee take Alabama as a Top 4 team if it loses to Auburn but beats Georgia to win the SEC? Or what if its second loss is a close loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship?
No. 3 Oregon (8-1)
It wasn’t a blowout by any means, but the Ducks are still winning. This time it was over a mighty 4-4 Washington team.
Oregon’s path to the playoff is the same as Georgia’s: Just keep winning. However, Georgia has some cushion, Oregon does not have room for a mistake.
No. 4 Ohio State (8-1)
Goodbye Sparty, hello Brutus. With Michigan State’s downfall to Purdue, Ohio State now controls the Big 10. Keeping with the same theme as the rest of the. Top 4, win out and Ohio State is in.
But watch out for Purdue, I hear the Boilermakers can be quite pesky for highly-ranked teams…
No. 5 Cincinnati (9-0)
Michigan State’s loss also benefitted Cincinnati, who is hoping that another Top 4 team goes down this weekend. The Bearcats need just one team ahead of them to fall to presumably take one of the four playoff spots.
However, it’s tough with so many Big 10 teams playing musical chairs near the top, while Cincinnati sits on the other side of the room, asking if it can play.
Keep finding ways to win and pit the others against each other is the Bearcats’ best hope.
No. 6 Michigan (8-1)
If only there was a way to determine which team was better: Michigan or Michigan State? There’s a lot of debate surrounding the No. 6 and No. 7 spots in the latest rankings, but it should take care of itself with the games remaining.
Michigan still can squeak its way in over both of its rivals in the Big 10. All the Wolverines need to do is take down Ohio State and whoever decides to take charge of the Big 10 West in the Big 10 Championship.
It looks like the committee is willing to apply the substitution property to the best Big 10 team in the playoffs.
No. 7 Michigan State (8-1)
The Spartans were doing so well. They jumped out to an 8-0 record and were ranked in the Top 3 after taking down their in-state rival. And then Purdue came along, taking down another Big 10 team recently promoted to the Top 4.
The story remains the same for Michigan State as it does Michigan, regardless of who’s ranked higher. Another loss is essentially an elimination, but four more wins might be enough.
No. 8 Oklahoma (9-0)
The Sooners have three games remaining, two of which are road games against Top 15 opponents. There’s certainly enough on the schedule to boost Oklahoma to the Top 4, but a loss this late in the season could prove to be devastating.
If Caleb Williams can take a couple of road wins from ranked teams like he took the ball out of his running back’s hands against Kansas, the Sooners may be back in business.
No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1)
A lot is going to have to happen for Notre Dame to make the playoffs this season. With no ranked wins and no ranked teams left on the schedule, the Irish are a step-stool for other teams below them.
Lower-ranked teams with better resumes are going to use Notre Dame as a stepping stool to get in reach of the playoff. Here’s what the Irish need.
Notre Dame will need the Big 10 to have the worst-case scenario, meaning all three teams garner two losses. The most plausible scenario is Michigan State loses to Ohio State, which loses to Michigan, which loses the Big 10 Championship.
If that happens and Alabama loses to Auburn, or Oregon or Cincinnati loses a game, Notre Dame should find itself in good position.
No. 10 Oklahoma State (8-1)
Oklahoma State only has Oklahoma left on its schedule to boost its resume with a win. And if the Cowboys take down the Sooners in the regular-season finale, they could face off a second time in the Big 12 Championship.
A pair of wins over Oklahoma is a nice add-on to the resume.
It needs to jump Notre Dame, but the wins over Oklahoma should suffice. With Oklahoma taken care of, that leaves the Big 10 teams, SEC teams, Oregon and Cincinnati.
The Big 10 teams should take care of themselves, with likely one team from the conference earning a bid. Unless Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State fall apart in the scenario presented for Notre Dame, which also helps Oklahoma State out.
Oregon and Cincinnati are both favored in every remaining game and a loss for either of those teams essentially knocks them out.
As far as the SEC goes, Georgia is all but a sure lock, regardless of the outcome in the SEC Championship. But for Oklahoma State to make it, no one needs to be on the winning side of the SEC other than the Bulldogs to leave things uncomplicated.
No. 11 Texas A&M (7-2)
The Aggies picked up a massive win over Auburn on Saturday and dominated the Tigers’ offense. It not only kept Texas A&M’s SEC Championship hopes alive but gave a sliver of hope for the College Football Playoff.
It needs to win the remainder of games in the regular season and have Alabama fall one more time to make the SEC Championship. Once in Atlanta, it needs to take care of Georgia.
This is where things get complicated. The first two-loss team in the playoff likely gets the No. 4 bid, leaving one-through-three up for grabs. If Georgia is one loss, the Bulldogs are in and two spots remain.
Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Oregon, the Big 10 Champion and the Big 12 Champion are all threats to Texas A&M, it essentially needs three of these to be knocked out.
Notre Dame shouldn’t be too difficult to jump if the Aggies win the SEC, strength of schedule pays off. If Cincinnati or Oregon lose a game, they’re done. If Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State lose the Big 10 Championship, that leaves the door wide open.
Worst case scenario for Texas A&M is that one of the Michigan teams misses the Big 10 Championship, but remains one loss. That could complicate things for the committee.
The Big 12, meanwhile, is a mess. There are all sorts of things that come into play for who makes the conference title game. Just root for the downfall of your former conference, Aggieland.
No. 12 Wake Forest (8-1)
It was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? Unless the teams ahead of Wake Forest fall like trees in a forest, there’s not a path for the Demon Deacons, who were on a thin margin for error.
No. 13 Baylor (7-2)
It’s a big climb and an even bigger stretch to say that Baylor has a chance to reach the playoffs. It needs nearly the same thing to happen as Texas A&M does, with teams above it finishing the season poorly and with several losses.
However, Baylor doesn’t have the signature wins or potential signature wins that Texas A&M has, so the
No. 14 BYU (8-2)
BYU has Georgia Southern and USC on the schedule, so any hopes of pushing to the top of the rankings will be nearly impossible.
No. 15 Ole Miss (7-2)
The Rebels are still alive for the SEC Championship but they’re gonna need help. Along with winning out, Ole Miss will need Alabama to lose twice and Auburn to lose once for the Rebels to reach Atlanta.
Certainly not the best odds, but they’re odds.
If Ole Miss magically makes the SEC Championship, I’ll chug an entire bottle of Lane Kiffin’s finest mustard. Add a playoff berth and I’ll do so while running through an active driving range.
No. 16 NC State (7-2)
Unfortunately for NC State, the ACC just isn’t the caliber of a conference this year it needs to be for a two-loss team to make the college football playoff.
But this weekend is a big matchup for the Wolfpack, who are traveling to Wake Forest in hopes of gaining control of the Atlantic Division. With a win over Wake Forest, NC State could clinch a spot to the ACC Championship with home wins over Syracuse and North Carolina.
No. 17 Auburn (6-3)
The Tigers saw their playoff hopes fade into the Texas sunset when Texas A&M ran a fumble back for a touchdown and extended its lead. All Bo Nix could do was watch it happen from the grass he was lying face down in.
Even without a national title to play for, Auburn is still in the mix for an SEC Championship bid. If Auburn wins out and Texas A&M goes down to either Ole Miss or LSU, Bryan Harsin will head to Atlanta in his first season with the Tigers.
No. 18 Wisconsin (6-3)
Winning is fun, isn’t it Wisconsin? Unfortunately for the Badgers, it’s happened too late. With three losses, a bid to the playoff just isn’t happening.
But, it doesn’t take away the fact that Wisconsin has turned its season around for the better, winning five in a row while outscoring opponents 153-37 in that span. Following the 1-3 start from the Badgers, the season is in its best-case scenario at the moment.
No. 19 Purdue (6-3)
If you’re a Top 5 team beware, the Boilermakers have been steamrolling top teams recently and Ohio State is next on their list.
While there’s no track in place that leads the Boilermakers to the playoffs, they can certainly continue to derail the hopes of others.
No. 20 Iowa (7-2)
Iowa finally found the win column for the first time in nearly a month, but it was a struggle win over Northwestern. The Hawkeyes can still make the Big 10 championship if they win out and both Wisconsin and Purdue lose at least one game.
From there, the best that Iowa can do is create chaos toward the top of the rankings by winning the Big 10.
No. 21 Pittsburgh (7-2)
Hopes for Pittsburgh ended with the home loss to Miami. The good news for the Panthers is that they still control their destiny in the Coastal Division and can win the ACC Championship.
No. 22 San Diego State (8-1)
Group of five team with one loss. Sorry, San Diego State.
No. 23 UTSA (9-0)
Meep, meep meep meep meep meep. Meep meep meep, meep meep meep meep meep. Meep meep meep.
Meep meep meep meep meep meep.
No. 24 Utah (6-3)
The Utes have no path to the playoff, but they can still impact the Top 4. If Utah matches up with Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship, knocking off the Ducks could knock them out of the playoff.
No. 25 Arkansas (6-3)
Three straight losses to Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn took away any chance for the Razorbacks to make the playoffs. Although, this is not a bad spot for Arkansas to be in considering that it’s had a losing season every year since 2016.