How Cincinnati can make the College Football Playoff
The College Football Playoff is unknown territory for group-of-five teams. Here's how Cincinnati can make history and become the first group-of-five team to earn a playoff berth.
Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, eleven different teams have checked a playoff berth off their to-do lists. None of which belong to a group-of-five conference.
In this chaotic 2020 college football season, of all seasons, is it possible to see a change in history? Here’s how the Cincinnati Bearcats can make that happen.
First of all, it’s important to note that it’s not just “win and you’re in” for Cincinnati. There are a lot of other factors that have to happen as well. Although, it does start with winning the remainder of your games. A loss is pretty much a deal-breaker in the eyes of the playoff committee.
At least, as long as you’re a group-of-five team.
Cincinnati knows this better than anyone. Despite having a perfect record thus far into the season, the Bearcats find themselves behind three teams who have suffered a loss in the initial playoff rankings released Tuesday evening.
Let’s take a look at who’s ahead and how the door can be opened for Cincy. It starts in the Southeastern Conference, where three teams currently rank ahead of them. Alabama, Texas A&M and Florida all stand in the way.
Obviously, not all three teams will make the playoff. There’s more than likely already one spot secured in the playoff: the winner of the SEC Championship. If you’re Cincinnati, this needs to be an unbeaten Alabama, who knocks off Florida in Atlanta.
That takes Florida out of the equation, but Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M still lurk ahead. However, there’s no way that a one-loss team who doesn’t make it to their conference title game gets into the playoff, right?
Wrong, just ask 2017 Alabama. Here’s where it gets a little complicated.
There’s no telling what the committee decides if Texas A&M finishes its season with its lone loss being a road trip against the No. 1 team in the country. The best chance for Cincinnati to secure a jump over the Aggies? Chant “War Eagle” on Dec. 5 when Texas A&M travels to face Auburn.
This may be the most likely scenario for Cincinnati to jump Texas A&M if the Aggies were to lose on the road to Auburn. It’s important to note that the Aggies have not defeated the Tigers since 2016, but road teams are 7-1 all-time in the series.
If Alabama wins the SEC and Texas A&M loses to Auburn, the Bearcats’ chances to make the playoff increase exponentially.
Similar to the SEC, the ACC champion is all but guaranteed a spot in the college football playoff. There are currently two teams battling it out in the top four: No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Clemson.
Notre Dame currently holds the edge against Clemson. The two already faced off earlier this season, with Notre Dame winning a double-overtime thriller, but are on track to match up once again in the ACC Championship. Cincinnati needs Notre Dame to pull off the sweep of Clemson and knock the Tigers out of contention.
If Clemson defeats Notre Dame in the championship, the odds of the Bearcats making the playoffs become a lot tougher.
Over in the Big 10, No. 4 Ohio State has reigned as the supreme leader of the conference for the past three years. The Buckeyes are on track to win the conference once again in 2020, barring that a surprising Northwestern team does not upset them in the Big 10 Championship.
A Big 10 Championship for Ohio State certainly puts them in the College Football Playoff for the fourth time. Although, the playoff committee appears to have certainly been impressed by Northwestern, who comes in at No. 8 in the rankings.
If Northwestern were to upset Ohio State and win its first Big 10 Championship since it tied for one in 2000, this could prove to be disastrous for Cincinnati. It’s almost certain that the Wildcats jump the Bearcats and slide into the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State’s hypothetical loss to a Top 10 team could completely shake things up. The Buckeyes are then one of those one-loss teams that the committee loves to favor over group-of-five schools.
However, assuming that Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State all win their respective conferences, this opens the door for Cincinnati to slide into the No. 4 spot. Still, the Bearcats will need some help knocking down Texas A&M. They need either LSU, Auburn or Tennessee to upset the Aggies to increase their chances of jumping Texas A&M.
The trail to the College Football Playoff, while not impossible, is long and filled with challenges for Cincinnati. It already holds a disadvantage of being a group-of-five team that’s strength of schedule will never be as tough as a power-five team in the committee’s eyes.
History has shown us that the committee does not value an undefeated group-of-five team over a one-loss power-five school. Take a look at 2017 UCF, who despite going undefeated and winning the American Conference in dominating fashion, was left out of the College Football Playoff.
Rather, one loss and eventual National Champion Alabama got the bid instead. Keep in mind that the Crimson Tide did not make an appearance in their conference championship game.
One thing that sets Cincinnati apart from 2017 UCF, though, is the climb is not nearly as steep for the Bearcats. When the initial playoff rankings were released in 2017, UCF was ranked at No. 18.
Cincinnati is ranked No. 7 in the initial 2020 playoff rankings.
It’s the highest that a group-of-five team has been ranked in the initial release since the beginning of the playoffs in 2014. So, if there has ever been a chance for a group-of-five team to sneak into the College Football Playoff, the time is certainly now.