Scenarios for each Top 25 team to make the College Football Playoff
Let's just say some teams have an easier path to the playoff than others...
There’s a lot to unpack with the recent releasing of the College Football Playoff rankings. Arguments that some teams were snubbed of a higher ranking, or that some teams are ranked too high.
I’m gonna break it down, team-by-team, with each Top 25 team’s path to the playoff, as realistic or unrealistic as some may be.
No. 1 Georgia (8-0)
The way Georgia’s been playing, the path is clear. Keep playing the way it’s been playing and it’s in. Even a one-loss Georgia gets the bid in my book, it's the only team that’s a guaranteed lock for the playoff this year, more than likely the one seed.
No. 2 Alabama (7-1)
Seeing Alabama at No. 2 was surprising for some people, but for some, it’s not shocking at all. Alabama got in some trouble playing Texas A&M, but the committee made it clear to the Crimson Tide with the high ranking.
Don’t do it again and you’re in.
No. 3 Michigan State (8-0)
The Spartans have four games remaining in the regular season, with only one that should be circled on the calendar, a road trip to Ohio State on Nov. 20.
Not only should it be a Top 5 matchup, but it could determine who gets the ticket to the BIG 10 Championship Game. That’s a must-win game for Michigan State, missing the BIG 10 Championship does not favor the Spartans.
And with the caliber of teams in the Big 10 West that the Spartans could face in the Big 12 Championship, a loss in Indianapolis still knocks them out.
Go undefeated or Michigan State is done.
No. 4 Oregon (7-1)
The Pac-12 has one representative in the initial Top 25 rankings. Win out and Oregon seems to secure a spot, given its No. 3 ranking. Looking ahead on the schedule, there are two home games and two road games, all against unranked opponents.
But that’s nothing the Ducks should be worried about, it’s not like unranked opponents have played Oregon close this year…
No. 5 Ohio State (7-1)
The Buckeyes had a slip-up in Week 2 against Oregon. No big deal, they’ve handled the rest of their schedule with ease and have dominated opponents. There’s a beefy final two games against No. 3 Michigan State and No. 7 Michigan, but it gives Ohio State plenty of leverage in the strength of schedule with wins.
A win against Michigan State knocks the Spartans out of contention and bumps the Buckeyes into their spot, so Ohio State controls its own destiny.
Win out and you’re in.
No. 6 Cincinnati (8-0)
Ah yes, the playoff committee’s stepchild. Cincinnati has a mountain to climb to reach the playoff and it’s unable to climb unless given permission. Looking at the remaining games, it’s not that big of a mountain and is still reasonable that Cincinnati could get it.
Here are the many scenarios.
Obviously, the Bearcats can’t lose.
The SEC is going to get at least one team in the playoff and Cincinnati needs any chance of two SEC teams making it shut down. Georgia has to win the SEC and Alabama needs to lose one more time, maybe even twice just to be safe.
If Oregon pulls that tomfoolery it did against Stanford in one of its four remaining games or the Pac 12 Championship, the Ducks are done.
But the real danger for Cincinnati lies in the ever-so-complicated Big 10. With Ohio State receiving the No. 5 ranking, just one spot above the Bearcats, winning its remaining games could simply replace Michigan State in the playoff with THE Ohio State University. Michigan could do the same thing if it has some magic happen.
But, if Michigan State beats Ohio State and then loses to a mid-tier team in the Big 10 Championship, the door is wide open.
Any one of these scenarios could easily happen, so expect some fireworks down the stretch.
No. 7 Michigan (7-1)
Win out and win the Big 10. Michigan State needs to lose twice and Michigan needs to defeat Ohio State to advance to the championship. Jim Harbaugh will need some help, but it’s possible.
A loss by Oregon or Cincinnati would be nice, too.
Remember, No. 7 isn’t too far away from No. 4, which is all the Wolverines need.
No. 8 Oklahoma (9-0)
Caleb Williams and the Sooners have two road games against ranked teams left on their schedule to boost their resume. If Oklahoma wins those and the Big 12 Championship, the committee is gonna have a tough time keeping an undefeated Power 5 team with multiple ranked wins out of the playoff, especially one with a playoff history like Oklahoma.
However, the committee made it abundantly clear that it’s not too impressed with the style of Oklahoma’s wins so far, based on its No. 8 ranking.
No. 9 Wake Forest (8-0)
If it weren’t for Cincinnati, Wake Forest might be America’s team. I mean, it was the final Power 5 team to climb into the Top 10 for the first time, when it did last week.
Wake Forest’s path to the playoff needs some help, but here it is.
Win out and win the ACC is the first step. Have Georgia win the SEC, have chaos erupt in the Big 10, have Oregon, Cincinnati or Oklahoma lose a game and there’s a solid chance to get in.
The more chaos up top, the merrier.
No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1)
The loss to Cincinnati put the Irish at No. 10 in the rankings. If Virginia can climb into the rankings by the time Notre Dame plays it two weeks, the strength of schedule could be improved with a win over the Cavaliers.
Georgia needs to win the SEC, Oklahoma and Wake Forest need to lose and the Big 10 needs to fight amongst itself. The more losses a Big 10 team has, the better. Obviously, a loss by Cincinnati or Oregon helps, but note that a Cincinnati loss does damage the strength of schedule.
No. 11 Oklahoma State (7-1)
The upset at Iowa State hurt. Especially with where the Cyclones are now, after beginning the season with such high expectations and a possible shot at a playoff bid. Nonetheless, the Cowboys have wins over three Top 25 opponents.
Yes, they were in the lower tier of the rankings, but it still counts. Besides, the biggest opponent Oklahoma State faces is that last game on the schedule against unbeaten Oklahoma.
Hand Oklahoma a loss and win the Big 12 as a one-loss team is the first priority. Then it’s hoping that some other teams above you slip up, especially Notre Dame. A few teams will take care of themselves, but is a one-loss Notre Dame team less favorable than a one-loss Oklahoma State team to the committee?
I don’t like those odds. Root for chaos, Cowboys fans.
No. 12 Baylor (7-1)
See Oklahoma State, but replace “Oklahoma State” with Baylor and “Iowa State” with Oklahoma State.
It’s pretty much the exact same scenario.
No. 13 Auburn (6-2)
Believe it or not, Auburn’s path to the playoff is simple. With the strength of schedule it has and the games remaining, Auburn could once again threaten to make the playoff as the first-ever two-loss team.
All it has to do is win out against teams like No. 13 Texas A&M, No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 2 Alabama and defeat No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. With a resume like that, it’s difficult to see where the Tigers don't climb into the No. 4 spot.
Easy, right?
No. 14 Texas A&M (6-2)
Did anybody see the Aggies losing to Arkansas and Mississippi State and a week later beating Alabama as an unranked team at the beginning of the season? Doubtful, but if you did, kudos to you.
Texas A&M has made quite the turnaround since then and has earned itself a decent ranking in the first edition of the playoff rankings. Like Auburn, it must win out and win the SEC Championship to even have a shot at the playoff, which is still up in the air.
So what needs to happen for the Aggies to reach the SEC Championship? Obviously, a win over Auburn this weekend puts them over Auburn in the tiebreaker. Then, it needs Auburn to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Mississippi State also needs to lose at least once, either to Auburn or Ole Miss.
It’s a lot, but not impossible. Besides, the Aggies have already pulled off a nearly unthinkable feat this season, handing Nick Saban and Alabama its first loss to an unranked opponent in over 100 games earlier this year.
No. 15 BYU (7-2)
With Idaho State, Georgia Southern and an underwhelming USC team the only remaining games left on BYU’s schedule, it’s over.
Sorry Cougar fans, but the playoff this year is just not happening.
No. 16 Ole Miss (6-2)
Okay, there is a lot of ground to catch up on for Ole Miss. It’s in the same boat as Texas A&M, but with a little more ground to make up.
Obviously, Ole Miss must win the SEC Championship over Georgia, in convincing fashion. Here’s what needs to be done to get to Atlanta.
Alabama has to have three losses in SEC play. It has to three games remaining and it has to lose two of them, to either LSU, Arkansas or Auburn.
Auburn has to lose at least twice, to either Texas A&M, Mississippi State, South Carolina or Alabama.
If that happens and Ole Miss defeats both Texas A&M and Mississippi State, the Rebels will miraculously head to Atlanta.
A win over Georgia in the SEC Championship isn’t going to automatically secure a spot, the Rebels need the Top 10 to fall apart as much as possible.
No. 17 Mississippi State (5-3)
Look, Mike Leach and the Bulldogs have already accumulated three losses this season, two of which were to unranked opponents.
In the best case scenario, the fanbase packs the cowbells for a New Years’ Six bowl and even that’s a stretch.
No. 18 Kentucky (6-2)
Without a way to win its conference, the Wildcats essentially have no path to the playoff. It was a good run while it lasted, but Kentucky is trending in the wrong direction.
Try again next year.
No. 19 NC State (6-2)
There’s a path for NC State to reach the ACC Championship by winning out. However, the strength of schedule in the ACC this year and two losses does not favor the Wolfpack well.
At least the Clemson win looked fun.
No. 20 Minnesota (6-2)
If the Golden Gophers hadn’t lost to a 3-6 Bowling Green team this season, I’d say there could be a path for them to make the playoff.
But just for fun, here it is.
Win out, defeat the highest-ranked team possible in the Big 10 Championship. Have Alabama lose twice, Oregon lose twice, no one except Georgia can go undefeated. The Big 12 has to catch on fire and P.J. Fleck has to row the boat all the way to the committee to convince them that a two-loss Minnesota is better than any other two-loss Big 10 team.
No. 21 Wisconsin (5-3)
Wisconsin has turned it around. After disappointing showings against Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan, the Badgers have back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams and are riding a four-game win streak.
Unfortunately, Purdue wasn’t in the Top 25 for more than a week and Iowa is dropping faster than a fridge thrown out of a plane.
Sorry Badger fans, there’s not gonna be a playoff jump around. Maybe start planning a trip to Yankee Stadium for the Pinstripe Bowl.
No. 22 Iowa (6-2)
Iowa has a real shot to make the playoffs. That's what I would have said three weeks ago. Today, not so much.
No. 23 Fresno State (7-2)
The seven-point loss to Oregon earlier in the season should have the Bulldogs ranked higher. That is if Fresno State had not lost to Hawaii.
If Aloha means '“hello” and “goodbye,” then the Rainbow Warriors said “Aloha” to Fresno State’s playoff hopes when they handed it a 27-24 loss earlier this season.
No. 24 San Diego State (7-1)
The Aztecs were cruising through the season before Fresno State came along and ruined their perfect season. And without a perfect season, Group of 5 teams are banished from the thought of even touching the Top 10, let alone the Top 4.
Hats off to San Diego State though, it’s been a solid season.
No. 25 Pittsburgh (6-2)
I’ll be honest. I thought the loss to Western Michigan was going to derail the entire season for Pittsburgh. But it won four in a row, moved up to No. 17 in the AP Poll and was sitting pretty at 6-1.
Then it went and lost to 3-4 Miami at home. Sigh.
It’s going to be some kind of rollercoaster over the next few weeks to see how all of these could play out. If you’re a college football fan, these are the weekends you live for. Especially if that favorite team is still in the running for a spot at glory.It’s going to be some kind of rollercoaster over the next few weeks to see how all of these could play out. If you’re a college football fan, these are the weekends you live for. Especially if that favorite team is still in the running for a spot at glory.
Caleb Jones is a senior at Auburn University majoring in journalism and the creator of The Breaking Wave. You can follow him on Twitter here: @calebjsports