CFP Scenario Tracker: Here comes Cincinnati
It’s happening. Exactly one year ago today, I published a similar article. It was titled “How Cincinnati can make the College Football Playoff.” This year, it’s different. This year, it’s much simpler.
That’s because this year, Cincinnati controls its own destiny.
Oregon’s loss to Utah knocked the Pac 12 out of playoff contention and thus a Group of Five team has moved into the Top 4 for the first time. While Cincinnati strives to make history, here’s who’s left in the race and how they can reach the Top 4.
No. 1 Georgia (11-0)
With a game against 3-8 Georgia Tech this weekend, Georgia will be 12-0 when it faces Alabama in Atlanta. Regardless of the outcome against Alabama, it seems fairly obvious that the Bulldogs have punched their ticket.
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1)
The Buckeyes made a jump from No. 4 to No. 2 in this week’s rankings and with good reason. They stomped Michigan State. Pummeled. Obliterated. Insert clever verb here.
But this weekend’s game is the most important one of the season. Not just because Ohio State is facing its biggest rival in Michigan, but there’s a spot in the Big Ten title game at stake and potentially more.
While Michigan leads the all-time series, Ohio State has had its number lately, winning the previous eight against the Wolverines. Take care of little brother, the Big Ten championship game and the Buckeye’s punch their ticket as well.
No. 3 Alabama (10-1)
Alabama had a few issues with Arkansas, but not more than the Crimson Tide could handle. Even if it wasn’t a blowout win that Alabama fans are used to seeing, they shouldn’t complain about the style of victory.
That’s not just me talking, that’s Nick Saban himself.
It’s obvious that if Alabama takes down Georgia in the SEC Championship, it’s in. The real challenge for the committee will be if Alabama loses a close game. There’s still value to a name and a program like Alabama, which with two-losses could still be considered better than a one-loss Notre Dame or Big 12 team by the committee.
There’s no guarantee though, so having those teams fall is the ideal situation for Alabama, just to be safe.
No. 4 Cincinnati (11-0)
It finally happened. A Group of Five team is in the Top 4. Keep winning and the committee will give the Bearcats a shot to show the nation that a Group of Five team is capable of being in the playoff.
That is, before it moves to a Power Five conference itself.
No. 5 Michigan (10-1)
If there’s ever an important time to break an eight-game losing streak to a rival, now is the time. Michigan gets No. 2 Ohio State in Ann Arbor on Saturday, with a Big Ten Championship bid on the line. With a potential spot in the College Football Playoff on the line.
This might be the biggest game of the Jim Harbaugh era. Iron the khakis and bring on the Buckeyes.
No. 6 Notre Dame (10-1)
With one game to play, the Irish are hoping that someone implodes and crumbles under the pressure. Maybe Ohio State or Michigan will lose the Big Ten Championship? Maybe Alabama will get embarrassed? Maybe Cincinnati will lose?
One of those has to happen in order for the Irish to have a shot. Oh, and don’t forget about the Big 12 champion lurking in the shadows.
No. 7 Oklahoma State (10-1)
A win in The Bedlam Series goes a long way for Oklahoma State. Not only does it punch the Cowboy’s ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game, but it’s always nice to do so by taking down your in-state rival at the same time.
Winning the Big 12 convincingly could be enough for Oklahoma State to overtake Notre Dame if any team above the Irish has something go south.
No. 8 Baylor (9-2)
Baylor has done a good job of disrupting the College Football Playoff path for the other top-tier Big 12 teams, but the Bears are likely headed to a New Year’s Six bowl.
The current state of the Big Ten ensures that there will be at least one two-loss team before selection night. The caliber of Baylor’s two losses compared to either Ohio State or Michigan’s two losses will likely be too weak to put the Bears ahead of either team.
No. 9 Ole Miss (9-2)
No SEC Championship bid, no playoff bid for two-loss Ole Miss.
No. 10 Oklahoma (10-1)
Oklahoma’s caliber of wins is not valued that high by the committee based off its current ranking. If the Sooners want to make a run, they need to win the Big 12 convincingly and have Cincinnati and Notre Dame lose. One-loss Notre Dame will likely gets the bid ahead of one-loss Oklahoma, based off where the Irish sit in the rankings currently with the same record.
A two-loss Alabama will likely get in over Oklahoma, as will a one-loss Big Ten Champion. It needs to have as many competitors eliminated as possible to have a chance.
There’s one week left in the regular season. It’s go time people.